Analysis Finds GOP In Far Better Shape Ahead of Midterms

A new analysis published on Monday contains more bad news for the Democratic Party heading into the fall elections.

Cook Political Report Senior Editor David Wasserman told NBC News that Republicans are poised to retake the lower chamber for several reasons.

“Based on all factors, you’d have to consider Republicans the early favorites for the House majority in 2022,” Wasserman said.

“But as we found out in 2020, surprises can happen, and it’s not a done deal,” he noted further. “Democrats’ best hope is that Biden’s approval rating stays above 50 percent and that Republicans have a tougher time turning out their voters without Trump on the ballot.”

Biden’s approval ratings have been in the upper 30s to low 40s for months, however.

Conservative Brief adds:

Earlier this year, a top House Democrat warned that the Republican Party is in a prime position to take back House in next year’s midterm elections.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Sean Patrick, who serves as a congressman from New York, says Democrats would lose their House majority if the midterms were held today.

Tim Persico, executive director of the Maloney-led DCCC, shared data with incumbents showing that several House Democrats are at risk of losing their seats to Republican challengers.

“We are not afraid of this data … We’re not trying to hide this,” Persico told Politico. “If [Democrats] use it, we’re going to hold the House. That’s what this data tells us, but we gotta get in action.”

“The point is, to make sure that we’re all on the same page, that we understand the stakes. Here’s the good news: Everything we are doing and everything we’ve talked about doing is incredibly popular,” he added.

Republicans need just a net gain of five seats to retake control of the lower chamber. And in the Senate, a flip of just one seat will give the GOP control.

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