Several economists are predicting that President Donald Trump will handily win reelection next year if the economy remains on solid ground.
The forecasts from Yale University professor Ray Fair, Oxford Economics Ltd. and Moody’s Analytics Inc. are based on the president being helped at the ballot box by steady economic growth, a historically tight labor market and under-control inflation.
The forecast tempers some of the president’s disapproval rating, which is currently around 54 percent amid impeachment talk and political polarization.
“The election is Trump’s to lose,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “Trump wins if the economy and his approval rating are about the same a year from now as today, and turnout is typical. But if the economy stumbles, his popularity flags or Democrat turnout is big, the Democrats win.”
The U.S. economy grew about 2 percent in the third quarter and unemployment has plunged to around 3.6 percent, which many economists say equates to full employment.
Still, the prediction model is fallible. It doesn’t take into account the massive political divide in the country.
“We stress that non-economic factors are likely to play an outsize role in this election, including policy and political developments (such as the impeachment inquiry) as well as factors like race, gender and ‘likability’,” Gregory Daco and James Watson, economists at Oxford Economics, wrote in an October report.