Former Vice President Joe Biden has held the lead in nearly every major political poll in the race for the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination, but a new survey finds that his support is collapsing ahead of the party’s first caucuses in Iowa next month.
The survey, conducted exclusively for Breitbart News, shows Biden’s support “in free fall” following the last debate between the leading Democratic contenders on Tuesday in Des Moines.
“The survey, conducted by Rick Shaftan of Neighborhood Research and Media, found Biden losing 11.3 percent of support in the days following the debate—a huge dropoff that comes at the worst possible time for the one time 2020 Democrat frontrunner,” Breitbart News reported.
The survey of 300 definite or very likely Iowa Democrat caucus-goers was conducted from Jan. 14 to Jan. 17. The overall survey’s margin of error is 4.8 percent.
Biden remains in the lead in the survey, but his support has fallen dramatically. Many political analysts believe that is due in large part to a poor debate performance last week.
The overall numbers have Biden leading at 23.3 percent, with former South Bend, Indiana, mayor Pete Buttigieg in second at 17 percent. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) is next with 14.7 percent, followed by Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN) at 11.3 percent and Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) at 10.3 percent, Breitbart News reported.
The more noteworthy story, however, is the difference in support pre- and post-debate.
“On the day of the debate, Tuesday Jan. 14, Biden towered over the rest of the field with 30.1 percent on that particular day of the poll. Next best that day was Buttigieg at 16.5 percent, followed by Warren at 12.6 percent and Sanders at 10.7 percent. Klobuchar, that day, did not break double digits, finishing that day’s polling with just 8.7 percent,” the news site reported.
“The survey’s next three days, Jan. 15, 16, and 17—after the Tuesday debate—showed a very different story. Biden, while still in the lead, but dropped 11.3 percent down below 20 percent to just 19.8 percent. Sanders, who got into a massive battle with Warren on the stage that night, also dropped a half percent to 10.2 percent.”
Meanwhile, Buttigieg, Warren, and Klobuchar all received modest gains in support.
“Biden’s lead is based entirely on results from the first night, prior to the debate,” Shaftan told Breitbart News in a memo.
“Of all the candidates, he took the biggest hit that evening although Yang has also been hurt. The beneficiaries: Klobuchar and Steyer. Sanders has also lost ground to Warren. Joe Biden is essentially in freefall and despite his current lead, it’s highly unlikely he will win the caucus unless something changes in his favor rapidly in the last few days,” the memo said.